9/6/2020

Welcome to Sharp Insight Consulting, happy to have everyone on board

What we're trying to do on these pages (in a nutshell) is to handicap college football games in a public manner – we’re attempting to look at the pertinent games week after week to see if we can find an edge – we’ll use trends/storylines/h2h history/public sentiment/situational analysis/angles/line movement/etc and try to isolate teams that are in good spots and, perhaps more importantly, which teams might be in bad spots – by doing this on a day to day and week to week basis, along with monitoring the action and watching games, we’ll likely develop a greater understanding of and better feel for the teams as we go and be in good position to have more confidence in our reads as the season progresses

Along the way I will let you all know what I am playing, and of course, why I’m playing it – hopefully the plays I list will be profitable – additionally, I would like to think that one could profit from the analysis on games that don’t result in official listed plays – read the posts and think along with me and see what information resonates with you - make your reads earlier in the week and then see what I have to say - this is after all an intellectual process at the core of the matter, and we’re simply trying to use rational thought processes (and a little bit of natural instinct) to outsmart the folks setting the lines and make a profit from the guys accepting the action

I’m sure there will be a lot more I’ll want to discuss along the way, and I always welcome questions, comments and input so please feel free to contact me – but for now, let’s chat a bit about tomorrow night’s tilt between BYU and Navy…………………………..

Let me start by saying I think this is a really big game for BYU – a big one for Navy as well no doubt with the game falling on Labor Day Monday night and being nationally televised on ESPN, but with the Cougars’ schedule, this sets up as kind of a ‘must win’ in a way for them right out of the gate – take a look @ their schedule for 2020 as it currently sits:

          @ NAVY          

            @ ARMY         

            vs TROY           

            vs UTSA           

            vs HOU

            vs TXST

            vs WKU

            vs UNA

Not a lot out there for them after this game, and the Army game was just added – maybe you can run the table and take some solace in wins against the Black Knights and Houston but I don’t think beating the University of North Alabama is going to provide much satisfaction – conversely, Navy’s affiliation with the AAC and their annual battle for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy (which will be competed for sans Air Force this year) means that the Midshipmen could lose this game and would likely still have all of their season goals in front of them – does that mean that I think they will lay down for this game? No, that is not a trait I think of when I think Navy football – but I do think that this one may mean just a little bit more for the Cougars from an overall scheduling standpoint, and a seasonal goal standpoint (I have to think that BYU is thinking undefeated or bust given that schedule) – Navy was also supposed to open the 2020 season against traditional rival Notre Dame in a game that was originally set to take place in Dublin, Ireland - BYU ended last year on a 2 game losing streak, falling in their season finale against SD State and losing in the Hawaii Bowl to the hometown Rainbow Warriors, so I think that they will have had a desire to erase the bad taste from their mouths over the offseason – Navy meanwhile had a magical season, finishing 11-2 with a national ranking, the CIC trophy, a win over P5 Kansas State in their bowl game and were co-champs of the AAC West, so going to be pretty tough to live up to ly’s high standards

Middies also going to have to try to live up to last season’s results without their best player from last year, qb Malcolm Perry – all he did last year was break Navy’s and the FBS record for rushing yards in a season with 2017, and he just made the Miami Dolphins roster as a WR – seemed to me that he at times got the Navy offense out of some situations that lesser players might not have been able to salvage – he will be hard to replace, and read that Navy gave the keys to the offense to SR signal caller Dalen Morris – HC Ken Niumatalolo said that Morris separated from the pack of potential replacements by making all the correct reads in the offseason and basically having the best overall grasp of the offense – I have no reason to believe that he won’t be solid, but I have no reason to believe that he will be Malcolm Perry either – Navy does return 13 starters (which is a lot for a service academy) including 7 on defense under 2nd yr DC Brian Newberry, who turned the Navy D into much better unit ly – Phil Steele calls the group “one of the best defenses in the AAC” – this unit had a lot of success against some pretty bad offenses in 2019 though, and seemed to give up a lot more points against some of the stronger teams they faced (35 to Memphis, 24 to Air Force, 38 to Tulane, 52 to Notre Dame and 41 to Houston) – basically I think they are solid but I also think they can be had – the OL replaces 3 starters on top of having to replace 4 last season, and that seems like a lot of turnover over a 2 year period – how effective will the offense be with a new qb and some new pieces on the OL? They’re a well-coached team and run an offense that attempt to run with perfection and can be hard to stop when clicking on all cylinders, but I have to imagine there will be a dropoff with the loss of an NFL talent behind center………..

First thing I noticed about BYU is that Jr QB Zach Wilson won the job in the offseason against a talented qb room, including 2 guys who made multiple starts last year – Wilson started 7 games as a FR and had solid numbers, but had offseason surgery and apparently wasn’t fully healthy heading into 2019 – he suffered other injuries that kept him out of 4 games and led to an otherwise forgettable campaign overall – but Wilson apparently worked his dick off in the offseason, added 15 pounds of muscle, won the starting QB position handily and now comes in to the season feeling fully healthy and very confident – Cougs return all 5 starters on the OL and have good depth up front as well (Steele calls the unit the 16th best in the country)  – last year’s top 4 pass catchers are gone, including TE Matt Bushman, who led the team in catches and yard ly and decided to forgo the NFL draft to return for his SR season, only to suffer a season ending injury a couple of weeks ago – they do return a few experienced guys at the WR position though and the feeling here is that those guys will be in position to make plays as long as the OL does its job up front -  the D returns 7 starters and 12 of their top 14 tacklers despite losing the #2 and #4 guys from ly’s unit – they have had a lot of time to prepare for Navy’s option, look to be solid at linebacker, have a lot of beef in the middle of the defensive line and allowed only 110 rushing yards per game over their last 6 in 2019 so reason for optimism that they can slow the Middies’ ground attack – more info on the Cougar depth chart can be found here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/college/byu/LongFormArticle/BYU-Football-Depth-Chart-versus-Navy-150902480/Amp/

I get the sense that BYU has a lot riding on this game for multiple reasons – the team had no opt outs which suggests a uniformity of purpose and from all accounts the team is solidified and hungry – this is the biggest game of the year for them and I’m sure they will want to get out of the gate strong to atone for their inconsistencies in 2019 as well as their disappointing finish – starting QB Zach Wilson used his time off during offseason/quarantine wisely, and won the job vs very solid qb competition- thinking here is that may be indicative of entire team’s mindset, especially since we’re dealing with a veteran squad that nearly had its collective season taken away from them – BYU is the only team west of Texas who is playing at this point this season, and they seem to be very excited about and appreciative of their opportunity, and return a team that HC Kalani Sitake calls the most talented that he has fielded in his 5 years at the helm – big game for Navy too and we know we’re going to get an honest effort out of the Midshipmen, plus their D is worrisome as DC Newberry did a great job in his 1st year with the team and has had an entire offseason to continue to implement his scheme – conversely there will now be an entire year of his unit’s performance on film so maybe an advantage for the Cougar offense there – the loss of Malcolm Perry from the Navy offense figures to be costly, and the team lost 4 starting OL ly then 3 more this year which seems like a good amount of attrition for a unit at a service academy – they have 2 bruising FB’s who were the team’s 2nd and 3rd leading rushers last year, but BYU has talent on the interior of the DL and return both starting DT’s from last year, including NT Khyiris Tonga who has NFL talent but turned down the pros to return for his SR year – Navy’s OL vs BYU front 7 will be likely be the most important matchup in this game and the thinking here is that the Cougars will be able to hold their own – from there if the offense, led by a healthier and more mature QB in Zach Wilson, can move the ball efficiently behind what looks to be a very solid o-line I think we have the makings of a hungry BYU team coming away with a hard earned road victory tomorrow night

Just the first week and I think it is always wise to take things a bit slow and easy when you’re making your way into a new season – we will have a lot more to work with once we start to see all these teams play and get a feel for how things will work with the new variables surrounding covid procedures, games with limited fans, etc – we’ll also have more situational angles as the season progresses and teams get into the meat of their conference schedules – but I’m ready to make a play and while I know that there may be stronger ones down the road I feel like I can live with the results on this one either way given the read itself but also the circumstances that have led to this game and this season even being played – I play a dime per unit and last year plays were basically in between the 1 and 2 unit range for the entirety of the year – basically just reporting on what I am playing here and I am now in on the Cougs – got it earlier at pick and now see that the line is Navy -1 in some places – not sure what will happen with the line, but Navy did open as 2.5 point favorites so it’s possible the line moves back in that direction after BYU having been bet to as high as -2.5 earlier in the week – but I am happy to get the Cougs in a spot where they simply need to win the game, and my book offers -105 juice on football, so risking 1.05 units to win 1 on:

BYU pick -105